Cost of Wind Energy Review: 2025 Edition Updates

ORBIT/manager.py

@@ -365,7 +365,7 @@ def compile_input_dict(cls, phases):
                 " commissioning_factor)"
             ),
             "construction_insurance_factor": (
-                "float (optional, default: 0.0115)"
+                "float (optional, default: 0.0207)"
             ),
             "construction_financing_factor": (
                 "$/kW (optional, default: value calculated using"
@@ -379,20 +379,20 @@ def compile_input_dict(cls, phases):
             ),
             "tax_rate": "float (optional, default: 0.26",
             "interest_during_construction": (
-                "float (optional, default: 0.044"
+                "float (optional, default: 0.065"
             ),
             "procurement_contingency_factor": (
                 "float (optional, default: 0.0575)"
             ),
             "installation_contingency_factor": (
                 "float (optional, default: 0.345)"
             ),
-            "decommissioning_factor": ("float (optional, default: 0.1725)"),
+            "decommissioning_factor": ("float (optional, default: 0.2)"),
             "commissioning_factor": "float (optional, default: 0.0115)",
-            "site_auction_price": "$ (optional, default: 100e6)",
-            "site_assessment_cost": "$ (optional, default: 50e6)",
-            "construction_plan_cost": "$ (optional, default: 1e6)",
-            "installation_plan_cost": "$ (optional, default: 0.25e6)",
+            "site_auction_price": "$ (optional, default: 105e6)",
+            "site_assessment_cost": "$ (optional, default: 200e6)",
+            "construction_plan_cost": "$ (optional, default: 25e6)",
+            "installation_plan_cost": "$ (optional, default: 25e6)",
         }
 
         config["design_phases"] = [*design_phases.keys()]
@@ -670,7 +670,7 @@ def run_install_phase(self, name, start, **kwargs):
 
         if phase.installation_capex:
             self.installation_costs[name] = phase.installation_capex
-
+        
         return time, logs
 
     def get_phase_class(self, phase):
@@ -747,6 +747,8 @@ def run_design_phase(self, name, **kwargs):
             self.detailed_outputs, phase.detailed_output
         )
 
+
+
     def run_multiple_phases_in_serial(self, phase_list, **kwargs):
         """
         Runs multiple phases listed in self.config['install_phases'] in serial.
@@ -1054,6 +1056,8 @@ def outputs(self, include_logs=False, npv_detailed=False):
             "npv": self.npv,
             "supply_chain_capex": self.supply_chain_capex,
             "supply_chain_capex_kw": self.supply_chain_capex_per_kw,
+            "onshore_substation_capex": self.onshore_substation_capex,
+            "onshore_substation_capex_kw": self.onshore_substation_capex_per_kw,
         }
 
         if include_logs:
@@ -1442,6 +1446,8 @@ def capex_breakdown(self):
             else:
                 outputs[name] = cost
 
+        outputs["Onshore Substation"] = self.onshore_substation_capex
+
         outputs["Turbine"] = self.turbine_capex
 
         outputs["Soft"] = self.soft_capex
@@ -1491,7 +1497,7 @@ def capex_detailed_soft_capex_breakdown_per_kw(self):
     def bos_capex(self):
         """Returns total balance of system CapEx."""
 
-        return self.system_capex + self.installation_capex
+        return self.system_capex + self.installation_capex + self.onshore_substation_capex
 
     @property
     def bos_capex_per_kw(self):
@@ -1562,6 +1568,27 @@ def supply_chain_capex_per_kw(self):
 
         return _capex
 
+    @property
+    def onshore_substation_capex(self):
+        """Returns the onshore substation CapEx if available in 'ElectricalDesign', otherwise 0."""
+        if "ElectricalDesign" in self.phases:
+            try:
+                return self.phases["ElectricalDesign"].detailed_output["export_system"]["onshore_substation_costs"]
+            except KeyError:
+                return 0
+        return 0
+
+    @property
+    def onshore_substation_capex_per_kw(self):
+        """Returns the onshore substation CapEx/kW.
+        """
+        if "ElectricalDesign" in self.phases:
+            try:
+                return self.onshore_substation_capex / (self.capacity * 1000)
+            except KeyError:
+                return None
+        return None
+
     @property
     def overnight_capex(self):
         """Returns the overnight capital cost of the project."""
@@ -1616,7 +1643,7 @@ def construction_insurance_capex(self):
         )
 
         contruction_insurance_factor = self.project_params.get(
-            "construction_insurance_factor", 0.0115
+            "construction_insurance_factor", 0.0207
         )
 
         if construction_insurance_per_kW is not None:
@@ -1642,7 +1669,7 @@ def decommissioning_capex(self):
         )
 
         decommissioning_factor = self.project_params.get(
-            "decommissioning_factor", 0.175
+            "decommissioning_factor", 0.2
         )
 
         if decommissioning_per_kW is not None:
@@ -1747,7 +1774,7 @@ def construction_financing_factor(self):
         )
         tax_rate = self.project_params.get("tax_rate", 0.26)
         interest_during_construction = self.project_params.get(
-            "interest_during_construction", 0.044
+            "interest_during_construction", 0.065
         )
 
         _check = 0
@@ -1808,15 +1835,15 @@ def project_capex(self):
         the keys below should be passed to the 'project_parameters' subdict.
         """
 
-        site_auction = self.project_params.get("site_auction_price", 122698898)
+        site_auction = self.project_params.get("site_auction_price", 105000000)
         site_assessment = self.project_params.get(
-            "site_assessment_cost", 61349449
+            "site_assessment_cost", 200000000
         )
         construction_plan = self.project_params.get(
-            "construction_plan_cost", 1226989
+            "construction_plan_cost", 25000000
         )
         installation_plan = self.project_params.get(
-            "installation_plan_cost", 306747
+            "installation_plan_cost", 25000000
         )
 
         return sum(

docs/source/changelog.rst

@@ -9,6 +9,22 @@ Unreleased
   configuration input.
 - Move the matplotlib import from the import section of ``/ORBIT/phases/design/array_system_design.py``
   to the ``CustomArraySystemDesign.plot_array_system`` for missing module error handling.
+- Updated default `soft_capex` factors. `PR #201 <https://github.com/WISDEM/ORBIT/pull/201>`_
+    - `construction_insurance_factor` updated from 0.115 to 0.0207 based on industry benchmarking, resulting in higher construction insurance costs.  
+    - `interest_during_construction` updated from 4.4% to 6.5% based on financial assumptions from the 2025 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), increasing construction financing costs.  
+    - `decommissioning_factor` updated from 0.175 to 0.2 based on industry benchmarking, leading to higher decommissioning costs than in previous versions.  
+- Updated default `project_capex` values. `PR #201 <https://github.com/WISDEM/ORBIT/pull/201>`_
+    - `site_auction_price` increased from 100M to 105M USD to account for rent fees before operation.  
+    - `site_assessment_cost`, `construction_plan_cost`, and `installation_plan_cost` increased from 50M, 1M, and 0.25M USD to 200M, 25M, and 25M USD, respectively.  
+    - Total `project_capex` excluding `site_auction_price` now sums to 250M USD, aligning with DevEx recommendations based on industry benchmarking.  
+    - These updates lead to higher default total project costs than in previous versions.  
+- Included onshore substation costs in BOS CapEx and project breakdown. `PR #201 <https://github.com/WISDEM/ORBIT/pull/201>`_
+    - The `ElectricalDesign` module previously calculated onshore substation costs but did not include them in `capex_breakdown` or `bos_capex`.  
+    - These costs are now incorporated when `ElectricalDesign` is used, resulting in higher `bos_capex`, `soft_capex`, and `total_capex` than in prior versions.  
+- Cable configuration file updates. `PR #201 <https://github.com/WISDEM/ORBIT/pull/201>`_
+    - Added a new dynamic cable configuration file for floating cases: `library/cables/XLPE_1200mm_220kV_dynamic.yaml`.  
+    - Updated cost values for `library/cables/XLPE_630mm_66kV.yaml` and `library/cables/XLPE_630mm_66kV_dynamic.yaml` based on industry benchmarking.  
+    - All cable cost updates are expressed in 2024 USD for consistency with other library configuration files.  
 
 1.2.4
 -----

library/cables/XLPE_1200mm_220kV_dynamic.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+# Caveat: cable specs not from a spec sheet
+# Assumed to have a cable with these costs
+# and a capacity of 400 MW (seen on industry)
+ac_resistance: 0.16        # ohm/km
+capacitance: 190           # nF/km
+conductor_size: 1200       # mm^2
+cost_per_km:  1801082      # $
+current_capacity: 1125     # A
+inductance: 0.38           # mH/km
+linear_density: 115        # t/km
+rated_voltage: 220         # kV
+cable_type: HVAC           # HVDC vs HVAC
+name: XLPE_1200mm_220kV_dynamic

library/cables/XLPE_630mm_66kV.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ac_resistance: 0.04
 capacitance: 300
 conductor_size: 630
-cost_per_km: 483084
+cost_per_km: 650000
 current_capacity: 775
 inductance: 0.35
 linear_density: 42.5

library/cables/XLPE_630mm_66kV_dynamic.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ac_resistance: 0.04
 capacitance: 300
 conductor_size: 630
-cost_per_km: 579700       # $  (20% adder over XLPE_630mm_66kV)
+cost_per_km: 780000       # $  (20% adder over XLPE_630mm_66kV)
 current_capacity: 775
 inductance: 0.35
 linear_density: 42.5

tests/test_project_manager.py

@@ -948,22 +948,22 @@ def test_project_costs():
     baseline = project.project_capex
 
     config = deepcopy(complete_project)
-    config["project_parameters"] = {"site_auction_price": 50e6}
+    config["project_parameters"] = {"site_auction_price": 30e6}
     project = ProjectManager(config)
     assert project.project_capex != baseline
 
     config = deepcopy(complete_project)
-    config["project_parameters"] = {"site_assessment_cost": 25e6}
+    config["project_parameters"] = {"site_assessment_cost": 30e6}
     project = ProjectManager(config)
     assert project.project_capex != baseline
 
     config = deepcopy(complete_project)
-    config["project_parameters"] = {"construction_plan_cost": 25e6}
+    config["project_parameters"] = {"construction_plan_cost": 30e6}
     project = ProjectManager(config)
     assert project.project_capex != baseline
 
     config = deepcopy(complete_project)
-    config["project_parameters"] = {"installation_plan_cost": 25e6}
+    config["project_parameters"] = {"installation_plan_cost": 30e6}
     project = ProjectManager(config)
     assert project.project_capex != baseline
 
@@ -995,14 +995,14 @@ def test_total_capex():
     fix_project.run()
 
     assert fix_project.total_capex == pytest.approx(
-        1593220043.059402, abs=1e-1
+        1843929494.9506452, abs=1e-1
     )
 
     flt_project = ProjectManager(complete_floating_project)
     flt_project.run()
 
     assert flt_project.total_capex == pytest.approx(
-        4087665127.1458263, abs=1e-1
+        4448212431.513601, abs=1e-1
     )