Flexibility Market Analysis - Multi-Country

Comprehensive analysis of electricity flexibility market activations across different countries/regions.

Author: Emil Mahler Larsen, CTO, Utiligize Date: October 2025

Overview

This project analyzes flexibility dispatch data from Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) and Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to understand:

• When and where flexibility is dispatched
• What technologies provide flexibility services
• Market dynamics, pricing, and provider competition
• Tender success rates and procurement efficiency
• Comparison between different market models

Countries/Regions

🇬🇧 Great Britain (GB)

Status: ✅ Complete with full analysis (23,607 dispatches)

UK Power Networks (UKPN) flexibility market - complete DNO-level analysis.

Data Source: UK Power Networks Open Data Portal

Key Findings:

• £13.1M market value, 28.5 GWh dispatched (Apr 2023 - Oct 2025)
• 10% tender success rate (90% of zones unactivated)
• 56% EV charging (predominantly home chargers aggregated by retailers)
• 48% monopoly zones (single provider only)
• 158 active zones, 31 providers, 439 flexible units
• Distribution-level: 86% at 33/11kV substations
• Top provider: Octopus Energy (£3.2M), followed by Ørsted (£2.3M wind)
• Contract length: 6.4 months average (seasonal/annual mix)
• Jackpot events: 15% of revenue from £4k-40k/MWh peak prices

📁 See GB folder for complete analysis

---

🇳🇱 Netherlands (NL)

Status: ✅ Complete analysis (959 clearing events)

GOPACS (Grid Operators Platform for Congestion Solutions) flexibility market data.

Data Source: GOPACS Public API

Key Findings:

• 959 clearing events, 14,912 PTU records (Dec 2018 - Oct 2025)
• TSO-dominated: TenneT 99.9% of volume (transmission-level)
• DSO minimal: Only 0.1% of market (682 MWh over 7 years)
• 4 operators: TenneT (TSO), Liander, Enexis, Stedin (DSOs)
• 15-minute PTUs (standard Dutch market structure)
• Peak 2021-2022, significant decline since 2023
• Average volume: 145.6 MW per PTU (transmission-scale)

Comparison: NL is transmission-focused (TSO), GB is distribution-focused (DNO)

• NL DSOs: 100 MWh/year
• GB UKPN alone: 11,193 MWh/year (25% of GB market)
• UKPN is 112x larger; Full GB estimated ~450x larger than NL DSOs

📁 See NL folder for complete analysis

---

Key Comparison: GB vs NL

Aspect	🇬🇧 Great Britain (UKPN)	🇳🇱 Netherlands (GOPACS)
Market Focus	DNO distribution-level	TSO transmission-level
Avg Capacity	0.44 MW	145.6 MW
Dominant Tech	EV home chargers (56%)	N/A (cleared buckets)
Market Type	Retailer-aggregated residential	Grid-level congestion
Granularity	Hourly dispatches	15-minute PTUs
DSO Activity	Very active (28.5 GWh)	Minimal (0.7 GWh)
Trend	Growing 4x (2023-2025)	Declining (peak 2021-2022)

Key Insight: GB leads Europe in distribution-level flexibility markets, while NL focuses on transmission-level congestion management.

---

Project Structure

uk-open-data/
├── .gitignore                    # Excludes CSV data files
├── README.md                     # This file
├── GB/                          # Great Britain (UK) analysis
│   ├── README.md                # GB-specific documentation
│   ├── ANALYSIS_SUMMARY.md      # Complete findings report
│   ├── DETAILED_FINDINGS.md     # Q&A on specific topics
│   ├── CONTRACT_STRUCTURE_EXPLAINED.md
│   ├── TENDER_STRUCTURE_EXPLAINED.md
│   ├── POST_CORRECTIONS.md
│   ├── fetch_flexibility_data.py
│   ├── fetch_all_data.py        # Bypass 10k API limit
│   ├── analyze_flexibility_market.py
│   ├── analyze_tender_success.py
│   ├── analyze_peak_pricing.py
│   ├── visualize_flexibility_market.py
│   ├── create_square_graphs.py
│   ├── requirements.txt
│   ├── *.png                    # 10+ visualization outputs
│   └── square_graphs/          # 10 SVG graphs (1000x1000px)
└── NL/                          # Netherlands analysis
    ├── README.md                # NL findings and comparison
    ├── fetch_gopacs_data.py
    ├── analyze_gopacs_market.py
    ├── visualize_gopacs_market.py
    ├── requirements.txt
    └── *.png                    # 5 visualization outputs

Common Analysis Framework

Both country analyses provide:

1. Temporal Patterns: Monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly dispatch trends
2. Geographic Distribution: Zones with highest flexibility needs
3. Technology Breakdown: Asset types providing flexibility
4. Market Dynamics: Provider competition and market concentration
5. Pricing Analysis: Cost trends by technology, product, and dispatch type
6. Success Metrics: Market effectiveness and utilization rates
7. Growth Trajectory: Market development over time

Requirements

Python Dependencies

pip install pandas numpy matplotlib seaborn requests

API Authentication

GB (UKPN): Register at UKPN Open Data Portal, then set:

export UKPN_API_KEY=your_key_here

NL (GOPACS): No authentication required - public API

Quick Start

GB (Great Britain)

cd GB/

# Set API key
export UKPN_API_KEY=your_key_here

# Fetch all data (bypasses 10k limit with date filtering)
python fetch_all_data.py

# Run analysis
python analyze_flexibility_market.py
python visualize_flexibility_market.py
python analyze_tender_success.py
python analyze_peak_pricing.py

# Or generate publication graphs (10 square SVGs, 1000x1000px)
python create_square_graphs.py

NL (Netherlands)

cd NL/

# Fetch data (no API key needed)
python fetch_gopacs_data.py

# Run analysis
python analyze_gopacs_market.py
python visualize_gopacs_market.py

Use Cases

• DNOs/TSOs: Benchmark flexibility procurement efficiency across countries
• Flexibility Providers: Market intelligence and opportunity identification
• Researchers: Study DSO vs TSO flexibility market evolution
• Policymakers: Compare market designs (GB's DNO model vs NL's TSO model)
• Investors: Evaluate flexibility service opportunities
• Energy Retailers: Understand residential EV aggregation potential

Key Insights

GB Market Model

• Distribution-focused (DNO level, 33/11kV substations)
• Home EV aggregation via energy retailers (Octopus, OVO, Ohme)
• 56% residential charging paused during peak demand
• Growing rapidly (4x growth 2023-2025)
• High failure rate (90% of tenders unsuccessful)
• Jackpot pricing (£20-40k/MWh during winter emergencies = 15% revenue)

NL Market Model

• Transmission-focused (TSO level, TenneT)
• Grid-level congestion management
• DSO activity minimal (0.1% of market)
• Declining trend (peak 2021-2022, down 93% since)
• 15-minute PTUs (standard Dutch market structure)

GB's Massive Lead in Distribution Flexibility

GB's distribution-level market is vastly more developed than NL's:

• UKPN alone (25% of GB): 112x larger than all NL DSOs combined
• Full GB estimated: ~450x larger than NL DSOs
• NL DSOs activate only 100 MWh/year vs GB's ~45,000 MWh/year

This shows GB's clear leadership in DNO-level flexibility services, while NL focuses on TSO transmission-level congestion.

Data Licenses

• GB: CC BY 4.0 (UK Power Networks)
• NL: Public data (GOPACS platform)

Contributing

To add a new country/region:

1. Create a new folder (e.g., DE/ for Germany, FR/ for France)
2. Add README with data source and API details
3. Implement fetch, analyze, and visualize scripts
4. Document findings in ANALYSIS_SUMMARY.md
5. Update this main README with key findings

Related Resources

UK

• UKPN DSO Flexibility Hub
• UKPN Tender Hub
• UKPN Open Data Portal

Netherlands

• GOPACS Platform
• GOPACS Public Reporting
• TenneT Transparency Dashboard

Europe-Wide

• ENTSO-E Transparency Platform
• EU DSO Entity

Publications & Outputs

Analysis and visualizations ready for:

• Social media posts (10 square SVG graphs in GB/square_graphs/)
• Academic papers
• Policy reports
• Market intelligence briefings
• Presentations and conferences

Contact Emil Mahler Larsen (Utiligize) for collaboration or data sharing.

---

Project Started: 2025-10-21 Last Updated: 2025-10-21 Datasets: GB 23,607 dispatches | NL 959 events Coverage: GB Apr 2023 - Oct 2025 | NL Dec 2018 - Oct 2025