diff --git a/2013-09-07.md b/2013-09-07.md deleted file mode 100644 index e69de29..0000000 diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..caea597 --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,197 @@ +# reflections +# Roland Shen Reflections Oct 26, 2013 +## Horizontal Groups +1) I believe that +having a sign-in sheet would be beneficial in increasing class attendance. +Although I feel like I learn more from office hours than in lecture, attending +lecture gives the class a structure to base our work around. Attributing signing +in for attendance to grades also gives students an added incentive. Not all +students are here to grade grub but knowing that you stand somewhere gradewise +also helps. + +2) A'ha moments: Knowing the presenter's role within writing the paper. +Presenters need to research articles related to the earthquake models and share +these findings with their vertical groups. + +3) If I were to change anything from this week, I would have attended office +hours. I couldn't this weekend because I lost my phone and had to go home for +the weekend to get a new one. Hopefully I didn't miss anything important. I also +could have spent more time learning python. + +#Roland Shen Reflections Oct 19, 2013 +1) I liked how we learned about new forms +of programming in JSON and HTML 5, and how we can incorporate these into our +learning of python. Stark's lecture also provided us with knowledge on what we +are actually doing for this project. The facts about earthquake prediction +helped a lot during our discussion and visualization of earthquake data for our +group project. Also, sudo apt-get install python-dev is needed to install pandas +and is a useful line of code. + +2) I had many "a-ha!" moments this week, especially during office hours. I +helped my group members and classmates in other groups pull request their +reflections and by teaching them how to maneuver through github, I had a better +understanding of how to go through github myself. My groupmate Khoa also found a +nice python package called folium and we used that in our project to show +earthquake positions (longitude, latitude) on a world map. Teresa made a great +point about collecting Stark notes on a github page as opposed to a google doc. +Just create a stat157 repository for Stark notes and then have everyone fork and +pull request individual notes onto the repository so that everyone can have easy +access without having to click on a google doc link. + +3) If I were to change anything from this week, it would be to focus more at +the beginning of the Stark lecture. I learned a lot from his presentation but +more towards the end when he started to bust out all the models in formula form. +Paying attention at the beginning of the lecture would probably provide more +insight into the "why" instead of the "how." + +Stark Notes below: poisson, gamma renewal models dont fit stoichastic seismic +data bigger events have smaller windows, shorter event times + +automatic alarm: after every event with M > mu start an alarm of duration tau no +free parameters + +magnitude-dependent automatic alarm (MDA) afte every event with M > mu start an +alarm of duration tau*u^M 1 free parameter ^none of this stuff is physics based + +For both adjust fraction of time covered by alarms through tau + +ETAS model in Luen PhD Dissertation + +project in a nutshell, get a model that is better than ETAS at all points + +Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes Omori-Utsu law for aftershocks + +============= +## Roland Shen Reflections Oct 12, 2013 +# Group Project 1 +1) The group project was a good change of pace from all that we have done so +far. We were thrown into the fire and had to collaborate with our team of four +to survive on such short notice. This forced us as students to focus on this +class and put it as a priority over other classes and I learned more about +iPython Notebook through this exercise than through any lecture beforehand. + +2) My "aha!" moment of the week was when I figured out how to run iPython +Notebook from my VM. I also learned about background and foreground processes +from my technical lead (who also happened to be in my group) so that I could run +iPython Notebook in the background while working on other things in the +foreground. I never knew such a thing existed and I hope to learn more as the +class progresses. + +3) If I were to take a different approach this week, it would be to start on the +group project sooner. We talked over email a little bit after Thursday but we +did not meet up as a group until Sunday at Aaron's office hours, which was +poorly planned. Starting sooner would have allowed for us to sooner encounter +the setbacks we had and we could have produced a better end product. I know +perfection is the enemy but seeing the other groups' projects made me feel that +ours was a bit lackluster. + +## Roland Shen Reflections Oct 4, 2013 +# Stark Notes Included +Measure earthquake as a stochastic process using poisson process and memoryless +properties to predice earthquakes estimate how big earthquakes are using moments +in physics earthquake probability is a metaphor claims that events occur as if +in a casino game, why not like terrorism instead? +La quila earthquake in italy 2010 +Urn model is just an assumption, just because there is a rate that there is a +probability + +Analogy of earthquake prediction to weather prediction obviously you would +predict differently based on past events like if it rains today, it is more +likely to rain tomorrow than it would in a summer. If an earthquake happens, +aftershocks will be more likely to happen. + + +**Assuming that something is random is a big assumption to make + +I think that this week was a vast improvement from last week. +I had a hard time setting up virtual machine because I forgot my password on the +VM that I had already downloaded. That was easily fixed though, along with the +local port. + +An aha moment that I had this week was when Professor Stark talked about how we +should treat earthquake occurances. Now that we know how earthquake prediction +works and the consequences of those who try to predict earthquakes and fail +really puts this class into perspective when it comes to reproducibility and +statistical analysis. + +We have a goal that we can work toward in our groups and we also now have a +schedule that we can follow. I am looking forward to next week's presentations +on Tuesday and working with my group over the weekend. + +## Roland Shen Reflections Sept 28, 2013 +# What are your thoughts on reproducibility? + +I think reproducibility is a great idea for people who are interested in +research and making an impact within the academic community. It allows for +others to understand your work step by step and to be able to create the same +results from your findings. Although I might not be interested in doing +research, I believe that reproduceability is important even within the +workplace. If I had to complete a project within a company, I would like to be +able to reproduce the same quality work later if a similar project shows up +again. I wouldn't want my first successful project to be a product of luck and I +would want to be absolutely sure that if I followed the same steps from the +previous project, then the current project would yield the same results. The +strongest justification for the opposite view is that some measurements in data +are variable based, that even though all the steps are carefully recorded and +followed, different results can appear. For such experiments or processes, it is +important to say at the beginning of a process that there will be variations in +findings but only because that is the nature of the research at hand. + +## Roland Shen Reflections Sept 21, 2013 + +We only had two classes with guest lecturers this week. I don't know if there +are any assignments related to these lectures. + +I still have not felt an "A-ha!" moment in this course but hopefully when the +class starts to pick up next Tuesday there will be more opportunities to learn +new material. + +Again there was no new material this week and as such I wouldn't have done +anything different. I'm glad that there were guest speakers this week. + + +## Roland Shen Reflections Sept 17, 2013 + +I was unaware that there would be a second reflection this week. I feel that our +class discussion in Thursday's section covered the main points that the course +should improve on. As far as communication between staff and student goes, I was +unsure whether we should submit anything if we did not do anything programming +related in class for the week. I also did not know if we should attach the +second reflection to the first or to create a new repository. Again, not having +a set assignment schedule can be confusing but we went over this in class. + +I still have not felt an "A-ha!" moment in this course but hopefully when the +class starts to pick up next Tuesday there will be more opportunities to learn +new material. + +Again there was no new material this week and as such I wouldn't have done +anything different. I'm glad that the GSIs are hosting office hours from 9am- +noon on Friday so that everyone can be on the same page. + +## Roland Shen Reflections Sept 7, 2013 + +1) I had a hard time setting up my virtual machine until group leaders in class +helped me out. Following instructions for downloading ipython and IRC was also +confusing. I understand what I should have done now that I have everything set +up, but I feel that the instructions could have been clearer. There was a lot of +computer lingo that I couldn't process espectially after I had installed the VM +VirtualBox. I didn't know how to do anything in homework-1 after the +installation. + +I am also trying to understand how to use github through the octocat tutorial +since github still feels foreign to me. I need to get used to knowing what +pulling a repository means or pushing something to someone else, as well as how +to navigate through the website efficiently. + +2) I have not yet had an "aha!" moment but maybe that is because I haven't spent +enough time learning github. I have tried to use Git Shell for this assignment +but that hasn't gone well so far. + +3) If I were to take a different approach to this past week, I would have spent +more time in becoming acquainted with github. I am not a very fast learner, +especially when it comes to programming, so spending more time definitely would +have helped. For other students, I suggest using IRC a lot. Whenever you have a +problem, someone else would probably also have the same problem and maybe +figured out a way to solve it by the time you ask. I didn't know what to do for +this week's reflection so I went onto IRC and asked. Someone told me +instructions to come to this page and post.